A decade following the UK entered into a hurried public vote that split the country and triggered turmoil, a warning emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the same may happen with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering upheavals for which no one is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two leading journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a potentially contentious and seismic referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can arise suddenly and can gather momentum swiftly," the commentator stated. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our islands remains very unstable."
Book Publication Aims to Stir Debate
The team have studied the governmental, financial and cultural arguments for any structural alteration in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the topic with a tour of public talks that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts all parties, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We must avoid a national vote on a binary, ambiguous question whose results have remained undefined because then you land with an extraordinarily divided society where the losing side are unable to accept defeat and the victorious side are uncertain precisely what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists say this point is looming, and a group called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the possibility, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there might be a national vote.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Partisan language for and against unity has hidden the shortage of informed dialogue, stated the journalist.
"Individuals are often for or against the idea but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to achieve it is mostly absent. A great deal has gone on in universities but hardly any politicians or campaigners want to engage even with the fundamentals. For instance, which kind of country might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the book, none of the commentators advocates unity or the status quo. Each writes two essays that seek impartiality in detailing the rationale for a unified Ireland and the argument against, gathering financial and societal figures, historical precedents and structural examples.
Debates range over flags and symbols, levies, health services, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to inform and provoke dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there is still lacking a debate," stated O’Toole. "Dialogue suggests an acknowledgement of the concept that there may exist valid points on either side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where voters claim they favour unity but reject paying higher taxes or introducing a different emblem to recognise unionists' British culture.
"The Irish government does need to establish what the offer from Irish nationalism is beyond just stating: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we value you'," said O’Toole.
Possibility of Public Vote
McBride thinks a referendum in his lifetime is probable and that it might occur abruptly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a bad or a negligent secretary of state who declares: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, valid perspectives, he said. "One side will win in this matter and the other side will ultimately lose but each side has possesses important lessons to gain from the opposing positions."
Request for Wider Dialogue
Westminster must join the debate, said O’Toole. "This is about your state. It is a British question equally as it is an Irish question."
